Projection of maize yield based on future temperature variations in Uganda

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Project Description

This research aims at investigating the potential effects of the increasing temperatures on crop production especially maize which is staple food for many households in Uganda. Despite the adaptation strategies such as improved crop varieties and carrying out best agronomic practices, weather variability is still a key factor in agricultural productivity.

The study is being carried out in Ngetta (Northern Moist Farmlands AEZ) and Kawanda (Lake Victoria Crescent AEZ) characterized by distinct temperature and rainfall variability. The main objective of the research study is to contribute to climate resilience of agricultural livelihoods in Uganda. The specific objectives of the research are to: to assess the extent to which temperature variations affect maize phenological stages in selected AEZ of Uganda under rain fed systems and; to project maize yield in the selected agro-ecological zones in Uganda under changing climatic conditions using DSSAT crop model up to 2050. Data are being collected on phenological stages including: dates of seedling emergence from the soil after planting, end of juvenile and vegetative, tasseling, silking (pollen shading) as well as physiological maturity stages. The genetic coefficients at these various stages will be calculated from daily average temperatures of the two sites based on a base temperature of 8 ˚C. The genetic coefficients information will be used in the crop model to predict future maize productivity in these areas under RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5. The results from the study will act as a decision support tool for policy makers and researchers towards establishing appropriate adaptation strategies to match the predicted global warming for purposes of improving food productivity.



Name: Amumpaire Jane
Contact: amumpairejane @]

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  • College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences,
  • Makerere University- Uganda. East Africa
  • Phone: +256 414 542 277
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